Three Years Old Sarah Palin Jokes? You Betcha!

1- Sarah Palin thinks the HBO miniseries "Band of Brothers" was about the Jonas Brothers.

2- The Civil War, according to Sarah Palin, was fought over manners.

3- Sarah Palin told a group of third graders that the Cold War was fought between Tylenol and Advil.

4- Sarah Palin doesn't believe that waterboarding constitutues "torture" because she thinks it's the technical name for surfing.

5- Sarah Palin thinks the Bush Doctrine was a guide for lesbians.

6- Sarah Palin told Glenn Beck that Alexander Hamilton was a "great place to invest your money."

7- Sarah Palin was disappointed when she showed up at the Ritz Hotel and it wasn't made of crackers.

8- Before the VP debates, Steve Schmidt wanted to have Sarah Palin change her shirt because it was "too loud" for TV. She said she couldn't hear it at all.

9- When Sarah Palin hears someone yell, "Duck!!", she pulls out a gun.

10- Sarah Palin thinks Amnesty International is a phone card company.

11- Sarah Palin wouldn't allow her daughter Bristol to open an account with Bank of America because, "it was one of the banks that Obama nationalized."

12- Sarah Palin thinks the Red Cross is a pagan religious symbol.

13- During the 2008 campaign, Sarah Palin agreed with an audience member that then candidate Obama was a "terrorist" because, "after all, even he says he's an agent of C.H.A.N.G.E."

14- Sarah Palin doesn't believe that "Real Americans" live on the coasts because, "they harbor our enemies."

15- Sarah Palin is so passionately in favor of the free market because she thinks there's a 100% discount.

16- Sarah Palin on climate change: "How can we address it if we don't know where it lives?"

17- Sarah Palin showed up to an interview with Chris Matthews on his MSNBC show "Hardball" in a Yankees jersey, with a bat and glove.

18- Sarah Palin opposes the "public option" because, "the option only works in college."

19- Sarah Palin feels that the Minority Whip in Congress should have went away with the passage of the Civil Rights Act.

20- Sarah Palin thought the Lincoln Memorial was a BCS bowl game.

21- Sarah Palin favors the Democrats using reconciliation for Health Care Reform because she thinks they need to apologize to God for pushing the public option.

MLB Hall of Fame Ramblings: 2014 Edition

Ever since the 2014 MLB Hall of Fame ballot was released, the world of SABR nerds, both professional and non, has been in constant chatter. I'd like to add to that.

Over the summer, I did a podcast with my friend Justin Senno on last year's HOF class and how difficult the voting process would be in subsequent years because of a few things:

1- Old, automatic HOF markers no longer apply.

2- Known or suspected PED use has tarnished a generation of hitters, leading to a gluttony of should be HOFers receiving middling levels of votes.

3- Voters only have 10 selections and in order to reach the HOF threshold, one needs 75% of the ballot. With a figure that high, only one or two players per year are selected, further compounding the gluttony problem in future years when more should be HOFers become eligible.

We know from last year that 3,000 hits is no longer an automatic HOF qualifying stat. Craig Biggio was the first guy with 3,000 hits not to make it on the first ballot in over 50 years. The knock on Biggio was that he was a compiler and that other members of the 3K hit club got in because they had other automatic qualifying stats, like a .300 career BA, or 500 HRs. Of course, this ignores Paul Molitor and Dave Winfield, both of whom are in the HOF solely because they reached 3,000 hits. Furthermore, would someone like Fred McGriff, who doesn't measure as a HOFer on any number of metrics, be a first ballot recipient if he hit a few more home runs?

There was also the issue of PED use in the players eligible last year, some of which is documented, most of which is entirely circumstantial. I've written before about Curt Schilling's miraculous transformation from a borderline All Star into a statistical HOFer in his mid-to-late 30s. But there's no evidence other than his ridiculous, history defying stat line and the documented use among many of his teammates. The Mitchell Report reported on a handful of ex-teammates of Schilling abusing PEDs. He played with Daulton & Dykstra in Philadelphia. Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley, two Diamondbacks teammates that also had questionably productive seasons in their mid-to-late 30s, played in Houston and San Diego with Ken Caminiti. That's a lot of circumstantial evidence. Mike Piazza has suffered from a similar, if not somewhat more unfounded judgment. Piazza admitted to methamphetamine use prior to its league wide ban and a Mets trainer's testimony served as the basis for a sizable portion of the Mitchell Report. He also hit balls 425 feet to right center field with a flick of his wrists. Schilling, Piazza and other assumed users will have this mark on their on-field accomplishments the way known users have it on theirs.

Lastly, ten total selections is not enough to make up for the high threshold of support needed to make the HOF, especially considering how many currently eligible players should be in today.

The 2014 Ballot

Here are the players returning from last year with their 2013 voting percentage received in parenthesis and the five new nominees with the highest JAWS score (if you've read this far, I'm assuming you know JAWS, JPOS, and WAR. If not, stop reading, go to baseball-reference.com and learn to love them):

Craig Biggio (68%)
Jack Morris (67%)
Jeff Bagwell (59%)
Mike Piazza (57%)
Tim Raines (52%)
Lee Smith (47%)
Curt Schilling (38%)
Roger Clemens (37%)
Barry Bonds (36%)
Edgar Martinez (35%)
Alan Trammel (33%)
Larry Walker (21%)
Fred McGriff (20%)
Mark McGwire (16%)
Don Mattingly (13%)*
Sammy Sosa (12.5%)
Rafael Palmerio (8.8%)
Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Mike Mussina
Tim Glavine
Jeff Kent

As you can see, it's a crowded field, especially considering those names on the bottom. Even if Jack Morris, Lee Smith and Tim Raines are removed, seeing as if they've been on the list the longest, it's still congested.

In terms of JAWS, there are only 14 players that outperform their HOF positional counterparts (a higher JAWS than JPOS, meaning they scored higher than the average JAWS score for a HOFer at their position):

Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Schilling
Bagwell
Mussina
Glavine
Thomas
Walker
Trammel
E-Mart
Raines
Raffy
Piazza

In order of whose JAWS score is highest relative to JPOS:

Bonds +63
Clemens +42
Maddux + 20
Bagwell + 9
Piazza + 8
Thomas +5
Trammel +3
Raines +3
Schilling +2
Mussina +2
(everyone else +1 and under)

What's the takeaway here, besides the fact that Bonds and Clemens were really fucking good? It's an example of how skewed the perception of exellence is. Biggio, Morris, and Smith finished in the top 6 of voting in 2013. Not one of them scores higher than their respective JPOS, nor do either of them finish in the top 14 in JAWS (although Biggio is hurt more at 2B because of his three full seasons catching and three full seasons in the outfield). Morris is a highly sentimental pick, his 1991 Game 7 10-inning CG masterpiece looms large in 40 year-old plus voters. In terms of WAR, David Wells had a stronger case and he didn't even receive enough votes last year to stay on the ballot. The less said about Lee Smith finishing with more votes than someone like Alan Trammel, who played an invaluable position (SS) to Smith's valueless position (RP), the better.

If I Were Voting

Personally, I don't care about PED use. In many different eras of baseball history, asterisks abound. I played college baseball and I know people involved with the game today. Everyone is enhanced, be it through medications, or Tommy John surgery. But nobody hit 73 home runs in a single season except for one guy, which legitimizes that record within the context of the era when it was set. If I were voting, my ten would look like this:

Biggio
Bonds
Piazza
Maddux
Bagwell
Thomas
Clemens
Trammel
Raffy
Walker

What do you think? Aminuts? Amiright? Weigh in below.

Other notes:

-Larry Walker has the highest BA of any eligible player at .313 in just under 2,000 games. His career OPS is higher than Jeff Bagwell.

-Edgar Martinez is considered a 3B for baseball-reference.com's JAWS rating system and he barely eclipses that mark, arguably making him a HOFer. I have some issues with that. He only played 564 games at 3B (78 errors & pulled early for defense 48 times) and rarely after 1992. Baseball-reference.com doesn't seem to be calculating dWAR into Martinez's DH years, when he should be penalized at -1 per year. So taking away 9 WAR from his career total should put him off the radar. There's also another issue- suspected PED use. From '90-'92, Edgar averaged .313/.402/.477 with 6 WAR, 36 doubles, and 14-58 HR-RBI. In '93 & '94, he was injured. From '95-'01, which places him in his mid-to-late 30s, he averaged .329/.446/.574, with 42 doubles, 5.8 WAR, and 28-110 HR-RBI. A doubling of production for an aging player in the mid-to-late 90s is quite suspicious.

-Jeff Kent will be eligible in 2014 and he's an interesting case because of the position he played and the numbers he put up. Let's compare him to Craig Biggio:

KENT

'97-'08:

.295/.365/.516
25-100, 37 doubles
3.7 WAR, 44.9 total

BIGGIO

'92-'02:

.293/.387/.450
16-65, 28 SB
36 doubles, 4 triples
4.6 WAR, 50.7 total

Taking Kent's 11 best years versus Biggio's best 10 yields a clear victory for Biggio. And that's not including his time in the OF, or behind the plate. In fact, he was a valuable backstop:

C ('89-'91):

.277/.346/.372
7-49, 22 SBs
23 doubles
3.3 WAR, 9.9 total

Jeff Kent was a good baseball player who set offensive standards at 2B, and in some circles, would be considered more HOF worthy than Biggio. His 2000 MVP award and record setting RBI numbers are good points. But if you look at the numbers, Biggio was a better at the position.

-Two other eligible guys, Mike Timlin and Armando Benitez, have no chance of receiving enough votes to stay on the ballot for next year. However, their JAWS scores were similar, so I got to wondering whose career I'd rather have.

BENITEZ

-Pitched 7 years in AL
-Best run from '97-'03: 2 WAR per, 191 SVs, 2.81 ERA, 11.8 K/9
-Memorable blown SV vs Yankees in 2000 WS

TIMLIN

-Pitched 15 years in AL
-4 WS rings ('92 & '93 Jays, '04 & '07 Red Sox)
-Best run from '03-'07: 1.5 WAR per, 26 SVs, 347 GP, 93 GF, 3.50 ERA, 26 IP in ALCS w/ 3.42 ERA

I'm going with Timlin. He almost has a full hand of WS rings.

That's all for now, look for more HOF ramblings in the future.

*What the fuck is this about? Mattingly is laughably overrated and I'll be posting a blog tomorrow showing why that's true.

RIP Racism: 3000 B.C. - 11/04/2008

In 2010, the Biloxi Public School District in Mississippi voted to shut down Nichols Elementary School, due to "budget concerns." The board, which is overwhelmingly white, cited a 400,000$ loss each year for the district as the reason, despite that fact that it later turned out to have a 10$ million surplus. Even when the Kellogg Foundation stepped in with a 1.5$ million grant, the board said their decision was final. The school was closed.

Nichols was the top performing elementary school in Biloxi that year; it ranked 16th out of 432 public elementary schools in the state; it was the only school in Biloxi to earn the state's GreatSchools designation, and produced the state's 2009 Teacher of the Year. The school has been around since 1886, and the student population was 90% black (surprise!). (Note: you can find this story, and others like it in Chuck Thompson's Better Off Without 'Em)

Racism doesn't ride a horse, with a sheet drapped over its head, and a noose swinging from its hands in the 21st Century. It comes in the form of local school boards citing fictitious budget concerns so they can close the black school that was outperforming the white schools. Abstract things, like Mr. Lee Atwater once counseled the Republican party to focus on. Here's that quote, and make sure to remember it:

" You start out in 1954 by saying, “Nigger, nigger, nigger.” By 1968 you can’t say “nigger”—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “Nigger, nigger.”

So remember this- when you hear a politician say, "cut, cut, cut", you know what he really means.



First, They Spied: A Surveillance State Supporter's Process of Change

First, they spied on the radicals, but I wasn't a Muslim, an environmentalist, or an anti-war advocate. I'm a Christian damn it, and I'm not about to have these Quran (Coo-ran) reading heathens destroy this great Judeo-Christian nation. And as for the environmentalists and anti-war supporters, I didn't support either movement. To be honest, I thought everyone involved was gay, and hated our troops.

Then they spied on our email, but I didn't use it. Today, my years unopened email account still ends in aol.com. If the NSA wanted to dig through chain emails and advertisements for extinct companies, they were more than welcome. I had nothing to hide.

Then they spied on our text messages and phone calls, which was admittedly troubling, but I'm wasn't a terrorist, so what was there to hide? Nothing. There's nothing I did in private that I would be uncomfortable with the NSA picking up in their global fight against the scourge of terrorism. Ben Franklin said those who would give up liberty for security deserve neither. Yeah, well, he's dead, and I didn't want to join him. This was the price of safety, and I eagerly purchased it.

Then they spied on our porn browsing history, and that's where I drew the line, but there was nobody left to support me. If only I had spoken up before, but I never imagined that the single most delicate piece of private information, porn browsing history, would be collected by the NSA. If I can't search Google at 3am for any number of questionable things, what's this whole American experiment been for? Just blow the damn thing up then.

So, after careful consideration, I want to change my mind on the surveillance state, and support privacy in all areas of life as more important than intruding into the lives of citizens to find terrorists.

My Biggest Fear

My biggest fear isn't dying- it's dying in a manner that my family and friends will secretly laugh about and that makes for awkward funeral speeches. Think about the show on Spike TV 1,000 Ways To Die. There are so many humiliating ways to die, especially if you're into weird shit. One guy, some mother's son, perished after he electrocuted himself by attaching car battery cables to his nipples. There's no doubt in my mind that after an initial mourning period, someone who loved him found themselves grinning at the thought of his demise. Could this be what the Barenaked Ladies were talking about in their hit song "One Week"? (#5 on the internal feedback loop for over 15 years)

"I'm the kind of guy who laughs at a funeral, can't understand what I mean? You soon will."

Do we all have a guy like this in our lives, who needs only the faintest of pushes to start howling in laughter at a funeral? I believe we do and that's why I hope that if I die (yes- "if", considering medical advances), it happens after a long, bitter fight with a debilitating disease. Nobody will start a Giggle Loop over that (if you don't know what that is, get off G+ immediately and watch Coupling on Netflix). But you know what will? Choking to death on bug body parts after participating in bug eating contests in order to win a python, which is exactly how an asshole in Florida died last year.

Back to my original point- I'm scared to die comically because I don't want my family and friends to one day regard my death as any shade of humor, AND I want my funeral speeches to be heartfelt and full of love. How could that happen for a guy who choked on cockroaches? If I were his dad, my life's obsession would be to ensure that everyone in the world knows I actively discouraged that kind of behavior in a 32 year-old man...Here's how I think that would go at the funeral:

"I loved my son. He was a good man, curious about the world around him, and sometimes moved to the beat of his own......ah fuck it. He was an idiot. Do you know how many times his mother begged him to stop eating bugs? How many times I tried to dissuade him? His death isn't a reflection on how little we cared about his well being. Short of imprisonment, what more could we do? I even called in a bomb threat to the Catepillars, Centipedes and Craisins contest last year so he couldn't attend."

In conclusion, I want to die honorably. Falling on one's sword is no laughing manner. Unless you tripped. Then it's hilarious. 

Ray Kelly, Ghetto Superstar

Ray Kelly would have you believe that black men trade knuckle handshakes (terrorist fist jabs, for you Fox News fans) with him in the streets of Harlem. After the NYPD stopped a higher number of black men than are black men in NYC, it's understandable why they love Ray Kelly. It's just like that scene in Ali, when he's jogging through the village and comes across the mural of him on the wall. The feeling of admiration must be as overwhelming for Ray Kelly in Harlem as it was for Ali in Africa. I can hear the community members now:

"Thank you so much for violating my civil liberties!"

"Mr. Kelly, when the NYPD officer stopped and frisked me because I was walking with a practiced swagger, I learned a valuable lesson in personal freedoms- they're theoretical. Thanks so much."

"YOOOO. What's good Ray-Ray? Can I get a picture with the guy who overseas a police force that systemically targets people of color, using laws written with race neutral language that hide the true agenda of caging and branding poor minorities?"

Mr. Commish, I hope the impact of the door hitting your ass on the way out is loud enough that Harlem can hear it.

MLB Hall of Fame Ramblings: Beltran, Beltre and Pedroia.

One of my favorite subjects to discuss regarding baseball- the MLB Hall of Fame. The author here notes a few players that increased their standing this year as HOF candidates. He mentions Ortiz, Beltran, Beltre, Pedroia, and Kershaw. I want to focus on Beltran, Beltre and Pedroia.

Carlos Beltran

-A slew of writers have talked about Beltran's HOF positioning over the last few years, and I will share their links in the comment section. The thing to remember with Beltran is that he played CF for the majority of his career, and CFs have a slightly lower HOF standard than corner OFs because of how rare it is to dominate the position long enough to accumulate the necessary stats that make a player HOF worthy.

-After Beltran won ROY in '99 (.293/.337/.454, 22 HRs, 108 RBIs, 27 SB), he got hurt the following season. Moving on from that, here are his average numbers from '01 -'08, before he got hurt again in '09 & '10:

.282/.363/.513
29 HRs, 104 RBIs, 29 SBs, 34 2Bs & 6 3Bs
46.6 WAR (5.8 per year)

-For you disgruntled Mets fans, Beltran averaged 5.8 WAR from '05 - '08, when the Mets were in contention. He also averaged a .275/.362/.505 split, with 29 HRs, 104 RBIs, 21 SB & 36 2Bs during his time in Flushing. And after two injury plagued seasons, Beltran recovered to the point where the Mets flipped him for stud pitcher Zach Wheeler. So, overall, it was a positive tenure for Beltran. That's just an objective fact.

-From '11 - '13, Senor Octubre kept hitting, with a..288/.356/.503 split, 26 HRs, 88 RBIs & 32 2Bs, all while averaging 3.6 WAR.

-In the postseason, Beltran has no rivals statistically. While he also has no World Series rings, he does have this resume to fall back on:

215 PAs
.333/.445/.583
16 HRs, 40 RBIs
11 SB - 0 CS
13 2Bs
35 BBs - 24ks
15 RBIs in '13 postseason (Cardinals scored 17 total runs)

-I personally think Carlos Beltran is a HOF player.and he will add to his counting stats over the next two-three years, which will help his cause in the counting stats obsessed community.

Adrian Beltre

-Can you believe Beltre has 2,426 career hits? Or that he's made 132 million dollars so far? Or that he played in 149 games or more ten times?

-Beltre is another under the radar HOF candidate. If you take away his rookie year, here are his career averages from '99 - '13:

.284/.335/.481
25 HRs, 86 RBIs & 32 2Bs
159 hits
70.4 WAR (4.7 per year, +dWAR)

-However, in the last four seasons, Beltre has made statistical leaps towards the HOF. Here are his averages from '10 - '13:

.314/.358/.545
32 HRs, 100 RBIs & 37 2Bs
182 hits
26 WAR (6.5 per year, +dWAR)

-Assuming Beltre's performance declines by 3-5% a year, he should be able to get to 3,000 hits, which up until this year, was an automatic HOF qualifier. Right now, he's 574 hits away. He's averaged 182 hits over the last four years, he plays in a hitters paradise,  and his team is competitive. I believe he'll get it, but only if voters once again choose to recognize 3,000 hits as an automatic HOF qualifier.

Dustin Pedroia

-Before you start with your bullshit, hear out his case:

1 ROY
1 MVP
2 WS rings

'07 - '09
.313/.375/.462
188 hits
47 2Bs
16 SB
13 HRs, 68 RBIs
57 BB - 46 Ks
16.4 WAR (5.5 per year)

'11 - '13
.300/.370/.446
184 hits
39 2Bs
15 HRs, 80 RBIs
21 SB
69 BB - 71 Ks
19.4 WAR (6.5 average, +dWAR)

-I skipped 2010 because he got hurt. In six full seasons, Pedroia has established himself as a leader at his position and inside his clubhouse. I can definitely see Pedroia's career playing out into a HOF ceremony someday. He's on a team with resources, talent, and drive to become a perennial fixture in the World Series. The possibility of Pedroia getting one more WS ring and hitting over .300 for his career is strong and that would make him a good candidate.

What does everyone else think? What's your feeling on the HOF? Sound off in the comment section.