Ever since the 2014 MLB Hall of Fame ballot was released, the world of SABR nerds, both professional and non, has been in constant chatter. I'd like to add to that.
Over the summer, I did a podcast with my friend Justin Senno on last year's HOF class and how difficult the voting process would be in subsequent years because of a few things:
1- Old, automatic HOF markers no longer apply.
2- Known or suspected PED use has tarnished a generation of hitters, leading to a gluttony of should be HOFers receiving middling levels of votes.
3- Voters only have 10 selections and in order to reach the HOF threshold, one needs 75% of the ballot. With a figure that high, only one or two players per year are selected, further compounding the gluttony problem in future years when more should be HOFers become eligible.
We know from last year that 3,000 hits is no longer an automatic HOF qualifying stat. Craig Biggio was the first guy with 3,000 hits not to make it on the first ballot in over 50 years. The knock on Biggio was that he was a compiler and that other members of the 3K hit club got in because they had other automatic qualifying stats, like a .300 career BA, or 500 HRs. Of course, this ignores Paul Molitor and Dave Winfield, both of whom are in the HOF solely because they reached 3,000 hits. Furthermore, would someone like Fred McGriff, who doesn't measure as a HOFer on any number of metrics, be a first ballot recipient if he hit a few more home runs?
There was also the issue of PED use in the players eligible last year, some of which is documented, most of which is entirely circumstantial. I've written before about Curt Schilling's miraculous transformation from a borderline All Star into a statistical HOFer in his mid-to-late 30s. But there's no evidence other than his ridiculous, history defying stat line and the documented use among many of his teammates. The Mitchell Report reported on a handful of ex-teammates of Schilling abusing PEDs. He played with Daulton & Dykstra in Philadelphia. Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley, two Diamondbacks teammates that also had questionably productive seasons in their mid-to-late 30s, played in Houston and San Diego with Ken Caminiti. That's a lot of circumstantial evidence. Mike Piazza has suffered from a similar, if not somewhat more unfounded judgment. Piazza admitted to methamphetamine use prior to its league wide ban and a Mets trainer's testimony served as the basis for a sizable portion of the Mitchell Report. He also hit balls 425 feet to right center field with a flick of his wrists. Schilling, Piazza and other assumed users will have this mark on their on-field accomplishments the way known users have it on theirs.
Lastly, ten total selections is not enough to make up for the high threshold of support needed to make the HOF, especially considering how many currently eligible players should be in today.
The 2014 Ballot
Here are the players returning from last year with their 2013 voting percentage received in parenthesis and the five new nominees with the highest JAWS score (if you've read this far, I'm assuming you know JAWS, JPOS, and WAR. If not, stop reading, go to baseball-reference.com and learn to love them):
Craig Biggio (68%)
Jack Morris (67%)
Jeff Bagwell (59%)
Mike Piazza (57%)
Tim Raines (52%)
Lee Smith (47%)
Curt Schilling (38%)
Roger Clemens (37%)
Barry Bonds (36%)
Edgar Martinez (35%)
Alan Trammel (33%)
Larry Walker (21%)
Fred McGriff (20%)
Mark McGwire (16%)
Don Mattingly (13%)*
Sammy Sosa (12.5%)
Rafael Palmerio (8.8%)
Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Mike Mussina
Tim Glavine
Jeff Kent
As you can see, it's a crowded field, especially considering those names on the bottom. Even if Jack Morris, Lee Smith and Tim Raines are removed, seeing as if they've been on the list the longest, it's still congested.
In terms of JAWS, there are only 14 players that outperform their HOF positional counterparts (a higher JAWS than JPOS, meaning they scored higher than the average JAWS score for a HOFer at their position):
Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Schilling
Bagwell
Mussina
Glavine
Thomas
Walker
Trammel
E-Mart
Raines
Raffy
Piazza
In order of whose JAWS score is highest relative to JPOS:
Bonds +63
Clemens +42
Maddux + 20
Bagwell + 9
Piazza + 8
Thomas +5
Trammel +3
Raines +3
Schilling +2
Mussina +2
(everyone else +1 and under)
What's the takeaway here, besides the fact that Bonds and Clemens were really fucking good? It's an example of how skewed the perception of exellence is. Biggio, Morris, and Smith finished in the top 6 of voting in 2013. Not one of them scores higher than their respective JPOS, nor do either of them finish in the top 14 in JAWS (although Biggio is hurt more at 2B because of his three full seasons catching and three full seasons in the outfield). Morris is a highly sentimental pick, his 1991 Game 7 10-inning CG masterpiece looms large in 40 year-old plus voters. In terms of WAR, David Wells had a stronger case and he didn't even receive enough votes last year to stay on the ballot. The less said about Lee Smith finishing with more votes than someone like Alan Trammel, who played an invaluable position (SS) to Smith's valueless position (RP), the better.
If I Were Voting
Personally, I don't care about PED use. In many different eras of baseball history, asterisks abound. I played college baseball and I know people involved with the game today. Everyone is enhanced, be it through medications, or Tommy John surgery. But nobody hit 73 home runs in a single season except for one guy, which legitimizes that record within the context of the era when it was set. If I were voting, my ten would look like this:
Biggio
Bonds
Piazza
Maddux
Bagwell
Thomas
Clemens
Trammel
Raffy
Walker
What do you think? Aminuts? Amiright? Weigh in below.
Other notes:
-Larry Walker has the highest BA of any eligible player at .313 in just under 2,000 games. His career OPS is higher than Jeff Bagwell.
-Edgar Martinez is considered a 3B for baseball-reference.com's JAWS rating system and he barely eclipses that mark, arguably making him a HOFer. I have some issues with that. He only played 564 games at 3B (78 errors & pulled early for defense 48 times) and rarely after 1992. Baseball-reference.com doesn't seem to be calculating dWAR into Martinez's DH years, when he should be penalized at -1 per year. So taking away 9 WAR from his career total should put him off the radar. There's also another issue- suspected PED use. From '90-'92, Edgar averaged .313/.402/.477 with 6 WAR, 36 doubles, and 14-58 HR-RBI. In '93 & '94, he was injured. From '95-'01, which places him in his mid-to-late 30s, he averaged .329/.446/.574, with 42 doubles, 5.8 WAR, and 28-110 HR-RBI. A doubling of production for an aging player in the mid-to-late 90s is quite suspicious.
-Jeff Kent will be eligible in 2014 and he's an interesting case because of the position he played and the numbers he put up. Let's compare him to Craig Biggio:
KENT
'97-'08:
.295/.365/.516
25-100, 37 doubles
3.7 WAR, 44.9 total
BIGGIO
'92-'02:
.293/.387/.450
16-65, 28 SB
36 doubles, 4 triples
4.6 WAR, 50.7 total
Taking Kent's 11 best years versus Biggio's best 10 yields a clear victory for Biggio. And that's not including his time in the OF, or behind the plate. In fact, he was a valuable backstop:
C ('89-'91):
.277/.346/.372
7-49, 22 SBs
23 doubles
3.3 WAR, 9.9 total
Jeff Kent was a good baseball player who set offensive standards at 2B, and in some circles, would be considered more HOF worthy than Biggio. His 2000 MVP award and record setting RBI numbers are good points. But if you look at the numbers, Biggio was a better at the position.
-Two other eligible guys, Mike Timlin and Armando Benitez, have no chance of receiving enough votes to stay on the ballot for next year. However, their JAWS scores were similar, so I got to wondering whose career I'd rather have.
BENITEZ
-Pitched 7 years in AL
-Best run from '97-'03: 2 WAR per, 191 SVs, 2.81 ERA, 11.8 K/9
-Memorable blown SV vs Yankees in 2000 WS
TIMLIN
-Pitched 15 years in AL
-4 WS rings ('92 & '93 Jays, '04 & '07 Red Sox)
-Best run from '03-'07: 1.5 WAR per, 26 SVs, 347 GP, 93 GF, 3.50 ERA, 26 IP in ALCS w/ 3.42 ERA
I'm going with Timlin. He almost has a full hand of WS rings.
That's all for now, look for more HOF ramblings in the future.
*What the fuck is this about? Mattingly is laughably overrated and I'll be posting a blog tomorrow showing why that's true.
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